He began playing the saxophone in elementary school.
If you are American, SSC endorses voting in this presidential election. Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver, and Aaron Edlin calculate the chance that a single vote will determine the election ie break a tie in a state that breaks an Electoral College tie.
It ranges from about one in ten million if you live in a swing state to one in a billion if you live in a very safe state. The average American has a one in sixty million chance of determining the election results.
The paper was from the election, which was a pro-Obama landslide; since this election is closer the chance of determining it may be even higher. But Presidents do shift budgetary priorities a lot. Neither of these are pure costs — Obamacare buys us more health care, and military presence in Iraq buys us [mumble] — but if you think these are less or more efficient ways to spend money than other possible uses, then they represent ways that having one President might be better than another.
In order to add signal rather than noise to the election results, we have to be better than the average voter. I recommend the Outside View — looking for measurable indicators correlated with ability to make good choices.
IQ might be another. Suppose you live in a swing state. If you value the amount of time it takes to vote at less than that, voting is conceivably a good use of your time. SSC endorses voting for Hillary Clinton if you live in a swing state.
If you live in a safe state, I endorse voting for Clinton, Johnson, or if you insist Stein. If you want, you can use a vote-swapping site to make this easier or more impactful. I think Donald Trump would be a bad president.
Partly this is because of his policies, insofar as he has them. But the latest news says: This is going to be close. And since the lesson of Brexit is that polls underestimate support for politically incorrect choicesthis is going to be really close.
But if some of my blogging on conservative issues has given me any political capital with potential Trump voters, then I this is where I want to spend it. So here are some reasons why I would be afraid to have Trump as president even if I agreed with him about the issues. Many conservatives make the argument against utopianism.
These same conservatives have traced this longing through leftist history from Lenin through social justice. Which of the candidates in this election are millennarian? If Stein were in, same, no contest. The left and right both critique Hillary the same way.
All she wants to do is make little tweaks — a better tax policy here, a new foreign policy doctrine there.met the man who said those words while working as a bartender in the Ozark Mountains of northwest Arkansas.
It was a one-street town in Benton County. The Stubborn Mule (), by Hermann G. Simon. When political commentators aren’t talking about Donald Trump, they are often talking about how the Democratic Party has “moved to the left.”.
Anti-Corruption: The Global Fight is a new handbook from IIP Publications that outlines the kinds of corruption, their effects, and the ways that people and governments combat corruption through legislative and civil society actions.
The Case Against Hillary Clinton [Peggy Noonan] on leslutinsduphoenix.com *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. As the long, scandal-ridden trial of the Clinton years comes to an end--and as the first lady mounts her own campaign for independent political office--it is time for a summation.
What is the legacy of Clintonism? What is there in Hillary Clinton's background. Full text and audio database of Top American Speeches by Rank Order. The Case Against Hillary Clinton [Peggy Noonan] on leslutinsduphoenix.com *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers.
As the long, scandal-ridden trial of the Clinton years comes to an end--and as the first lady mounts her own campaign for independent political office--it is time for a summation. What is the legacy of Clintonism? What is there in Hillary Clinton's .